By
Ch. Faisal Mahmood
CEO & Chief Editor
Holiday Weekly
With Thousands of Glaciers and Growing Glacial Lakes, Pakistan Cannot Afford to Ignore the Himalayan Alarm.
Nepal’s devastating glacier-related disaster and the monster floods that followed have once again demonstrated how quickly the climate crisis can transform the world’s most spectacular mountain landscapes into zones of deadly destruction.
What begins high above the tree line—with rapidly melting ice, unstable glaciers, glacial lakes and intense rainfall—can within hours become a torrent capable of sweeping away roads, bridges, homes, businesses and entire communities downstream.
For Pakistan, the devastation in Nepal should not be viewed simply as another Himalayan tragedy.
It should be treated as a warning from nature.
Pakistan possesses one of the largest concentrations of glaciers outside the Polar Regions. Gilgit-Baltistan alone is home to more than 7,000 glaciers, while the wider Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan region contains thousands more. These frozen reservoirs are the country’s natural water towers, feeding the Indus River system upon which Pakistan’s agriculture, drinking water, hydropower and economy depend.
But the same glaciers that have historically represented Pakistan’s greatest natural water asset are increasingly becoming a potentially catastrophic climate liability.
The Nepal Warning
Nepal’s experience illustrates the danger of a new climate reality in the high mountains. Rising temperatures are accelerating glacier retreat, while the formation and expansion of glacial lakes are increasing the possibility of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).
When a glacier retreats, meltwater can accumulate behind unstable natural dams made of ice, rock and debris. If such a dam collapses because of excessive melting, heavy rainfall, avalanches, landslides or another trigger, millions of cubic metres of water can suddenly rush downstream.
The resulting flood does not behave like an ordinary river flood. It can carry enormous quantities of boulders, mud, trees, ice and debris, destroying everything in its path. Mountain roads disappear, bridges are washed away, villages are cut off and tourism infrastructure can be devastated within minutes.
And the danger does not end at the glacier. Subsequent extreme rainfall, landslides and overflowing rivers can transform a mountain emergency in to a massive regional flood disaster, creating a chain reaction of destruction from high valleys to downstream plains.
This is precisely the type of compound climate disaster Pakistan must prepare for.
Pakistan’s Frozen Giant
Gilgit-Baltistan is among the most heavily glaciated regions on Earth outside the polar ice caps.Glaciers and permanent snow cover occupy roughly a quarter of the region’s land area, and their meltwater ultimately feeds the Indus system.
As per the record of the Ministry of Climate Change, more than 3,000 glacial lakes have formed across Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as glaciers retreat. Around 33 lakes have been formally assessed as prone to hazardous GLOF events, while more than seven million people in the two regions live within the potential danger zone.
Pakistan’s space agency, SUPARCO, which monitors glacial lakes through satellite technology, has expanded its watch list to 131 potentially dangerous lakes nationwide.
These figures should be enough to trigger a national-level response. Nepal’s recent disaster shows what can happen when a mountain hazard combines with extreme weather. Pakistan has many of the same ingredients for an equally devastating event.
The Threat Does Not Stop in the Mountains
The greatest misconception is that glacier disasters are exclusively a Gilgit-Baltistan or northern Pakistan problem.
They are not.
Pakistan’s glaciers feed the Indus River, which travels through the country and irrigates its agricultural heartland. Punjab and Sindh ultimately depend upon this mountain water. Therefore, a crisis that begins in a remote valley of Gilgit-Baltistan can eventually affect the entire national economy.
The threat is also no longer limited to individual GLOF events. The Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan region is experiencing increasingly complex weather patterns in which glacier melt, extreme rainfall, landslides, flash floods and rapidly rising rivers can occur simultaneously.
Such compound hazards are far more difficult to predict and manage than a single flood or landslide.
Human Development Is Increasing the Risk
Climate change is thefundamental driver, but human activity is increasing Pakistan’s vulnerability.Across Gilgit-Baltistan, rapid RCC construction has transformed the traditional landscape. In placessuch as Skardu, modern reinforced-concrete structures are rapidly replacing traditional mud houses that were better adapted to the local environment. Thousands of tons of steel and cement being used in very highly scientive climatically contrary to use a certain ratio of these material whereas more than 75 percent envirmental friendly material should be used particularly above the ground.
Tourism has brought valuable economic opportunities, but development without proper environmental planning can create serious risks. Construction along riverbanks, floodplains and unstable slopes can turn a natural hazard into a human catastrophe.
When a flood arrives, a road, hotel, house, or commercial building constructed in the wrong location can become an obstacle that worsens destruction and debris flow. Pakistan must therefore rethink the way it develops its mountain tourism destinations.
Deforestation: Another Dangerous Link
Deforestation is adding another layer to the crisis. Diamer district, in particular, has faced serious concerns over forest degradation and illegal timber cutting. The removal of trees and vegetation weakens mountain slopes, reduces the soil’s ability to absorb rainfall and increases the likelihood of landslides, flash floods and erosion.
This becomes particularly dangerous when extreme rainfall occurs simultaneously with accelerated glacier melt. A healthy mountain ecosystem acts as a natural defence system. A degraded one can become a channel for destruction. Strict enforcement against illegal logging and effective protection of forests must therefore become a central component of Pakistan’s climate adaptation strategy.
Black Carbon Is Accelerating the Problem
Perhaps one of the most disturbing aspects of the crisis is that some forces accelerating glacier melt originate within the region itself. In many parts of Gilgit-Baltistan, unreliable electricity supplies force households and businesses to rely on firewood, diesel and other fuels. In some areas, plastic and tyres are also burned for heating.The resulting black carbon pollution can settle on snow and ice, darkening the surface and reducing its ability to reflect sunlight. This causes the ice to absorb more heat and accelerates melting.
Pakistan is therefore caught in a vicious cycle:
Energy shortages produce pollution; pollution accelerates glacier melting; and accelerated melting increases disaster risk. Breaking this cycle requires investment in reliable and clean energy for mountain communities.
Tourism Is Also at Risk
For Pakistan’s tourism industry, the implications are enormous. Gilgit-Baltistan is one of the country’s greatest tourism assets, attracting visitors to Hunza, Skardu, Deosai, Fairy Meadows, Khunjerab, Shigar, Ghizer and countless valleys, lakes and mountain destinations.
But tourism infrastructure is increasingly exposed to floods, landslides and road closures.The Jaglot-Skardu Road, the principal connection between Baltistan and the rest of Gilgit-Baltistan, has repeatedly been damaged or blocked by landslides and floods. Every major closure isolates communities, disrupts trade and strands tourists.
Nepal’s experience sends a particularly important message to Pakistan’s tourism planners: climate resilience must become an integral part of tourism development. Hotels, resorts, roads, bridges, trekking routes and tourist facilities cannot be planned merely according to scenic beauty and commercial potential. They must also be assessed for flood, landslide, avalanche and GLOF risks.
Pakistan Must Act Before the Next Monster Flood
Pakistan does not lack warning signs. It has thousands of glaciers, thousands of glacial lakes, satellite monitoring capability, scientific institutions and repeated experience of catastrophic floods. What is needed is a stronger and more coordinated institutional response.
Pakistan urgently needs a dedicated Glacier Protection and Research Department, with specialist scientists, hydrologists, geologists, remote-sensing experts and disaster-management professionals.
Every high-risk glacial lake should be continuously monitored through satellites and ground-based systems. Communities living downstream must have functioning early-warning systems, alarm mechanisms and clearly defined evacuation routes.
Construction in high-risk flood corridors and riverbeds should be prohibited, while environmental approvals must be mandatory and genuinely enforceable. At the same time, deforestation must be stopped, black-carbon emissions reduced, and clean energy made available to mountain communities.
Gilgit-Baltistan also possesses enormous hydropower potential. Developing this resource responsibly could provide reliable electricity to the region, reduce dependence on firewood and diesel, and help create a cleaner energy future.
A Warning Pakistan Cannot Ignore
The greatest danger is that Pakistan will respond only after its own disaster. That would be a tragic mistake. Nepal’s glacier disaster and monster floods offer Pakistan an opportunity to look into the future before the same chain of events reaches its own valleys.
Pakistan’s glaciers are not merely spectacular tourist attractions or distant walls of ice. They are the source of the Indus, the lifeline of Pakistan. But they are changing rapidly. The country must now recognize that glacier protection is not simply an environmental issue. It is a matter of water security, food security, tourism, infrastructure, economic stability and national survival.
The choice before Pakistan is increasingly clear: protect the mountains now, or pay an unimaginable price later.
THE WARNING IS COMING FROM THE ROOF OF THE WORLD.
Pakistan must listen before its own frozen water towers become the starting point of the next monster flood.
